Monday, November 19, 2007

Impacts of Common Wealth suspension on Pakistan?

The impact of suspension from the Commonwealth would be largely symbolic. Although it might mean a loss of prestige for Pakistan, it would not automatically affect bilateral relations with members of the organisation. American action is not tied to the Commonwealth.
US administration officials are using tough language - demanding that General Musharraf bring a quick end to the state of emergency and threatening to review aid if he doesn't - but they have also said they want to continue working with him.
There would be pressure coming from Congress for some kind of sanctions, but it's unlikely President George W Bush would take any action that weakens Pakistani support for American troops in Afghanistan.
In this sense Gen Musharraf has leverage: he's key to the fight against the Taleban and al-Qaeda in the border areas, and crucial for supplying American forces in Afghanistan: 75% of these supplies go through Pakistan. Analysts say the general is gambling that they need him more than he needs them. In fact, the business community credits the military-led government of President Musharraf with economic reforms that rescued the country from the alleged corruption and financial mismanagement of his two civilian predecessors. This was due partly to a massive injection of American aid after the general agreed to co-operate in the so-called war on terror, and partly to shrewd financial management by his prime minister.
It seems the perception of economic stability is still tied to his leadership: the stock market fell on rumours that he'd been deposed shortly after he declared emergency rule. Economists say industrial and trading activities have not been severely affected by the state of emergency, but any long-term political instability will probably have impact on foreign investment. The clampdown on the media and legal community may also have negative consequences for the economy, affecting the free flow of information and the rule of law.
Critics say more democracy is essential to help spread the wealth. The reforms have forged a nexus of power between economic elites and the military and haven't been accompanied by a substantial increase in what is a very low level of social spending, thus widening the gap between rich and poor.
And international monitors show the perception is that Gen Musharraf's government is just as corrupt as his predecessors.

No comments: